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What these plots compare

The models include actor and partner effects but leave out residual partner dependence. We compare checks of raw outcomes with checks that first subtract fixed-effect predictions. Both use the same datasets, fitted models, and reference simulations. Each check uses one summary: the correlation between the first and second partner in each dyad. The covariance-pooling study checks all summaries within each dyad composition.

  • Coloured lines: how often the check detects omitted positive correlation. A mismatch is detected when the observed correlation exceeds the upper limit of the model’s middle 95% simulated range. Flags below the lower limit are listed separately in each family’s details.
  • Black lines: false alarms when residual correlation is zero. Values below or above the middle 95% simulated range count as false alarms. The grey dashed line marks 5% as a benchmark, not a guaranteed rate. A full check shows four to six summaries per composition, so at least one flag is more likely than these rates suggest.

The results apply to the settings studied and can differ with other model settings. Rates include only usable fits. Many fits were excluded for skew-normal models and small Student t samples, mainly because of numerical problems during fitting.

Checks that subtract model predictions generally detected more omitted dependence than raw checks. Their false-alarm rates ranged from 4.7% to 5.9% across settings when pooled over sample sizes. Small residual correlations (0.10) were difficult to detect even with several hundred dyads. At 1,000 dyads, detection ranged from 27% to 91% across the studied settings.

Ordinal checks use category scores 1, 2, and so on. Zero-inflated and hurdle checks use the combined outcome, including zeros.

Study details

Predictors are standard normal with a partner correlation of 0.3. Actor and partner effects are 0.5 and 0.3 on the model’s link scale. We transform correlated normal draws to each outcome distribution using a Gaussian copula. We adjust their dependence to give residual correlations of 0, 0.10, 0.30, and 0.50 after subtracting the true means given the predictors.

Reference simulations keep fitted parameters and predictors fixed, without refitting the models. More simulations give more precise estimates of the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile limits. More study datasets give more precise estimates of the plotted rates. The bars and bands are 95% Wilson intervals for this Monte Carlo uncertainty.

We exclude failed fits and checks without retry, as well as ordinal datasets missing a category. Correlations must be defined to count as a valid check. Undefined simulated correlations are omitted from reference ranges. Each family’s details give exclusion counts and reasons.

Some Tweedie datasets used an equivalent, faster glmmTMB sampler; see the study notes.

The report uses saved results. See the study code, plot code, and study notes.

Gaussian

Gaussian: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Gaussian: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, identity link, intercept 0.

Dispersion: SD = 1

Population correlations

Exact Gaussian correlation.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.0 0
0.1 0.1 0
0.3 0.3 0
0.5 0.5 0

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 11
raw 16500 1

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Poisson

Poisson: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Poisson: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: Poisson mean

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.001 0.002
0.1 0.098 0.002
0.3 0.298 0.002
0.5 0.497 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 21
raw 16500 2

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Negative binomial (NB1)

Negative binomial (NB1): detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Negative binomial (NB1): false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 1

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.000 0.002
0.1 0.101 0.002
0.3 0.300 0.002
0.5 0.500 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16480 17
raw 16480 3

21973 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Convergence or Hessian problem 27

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 493
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 495
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 492
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 493

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Negative binomial (NB2)

Negative binomial (NB2): detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Negative binomial (NB2): false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: size = 3

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.003 0.003
0.1 0.097 0.003
0.3 0.297 0.003
0.5 0.497 0.002

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16491 26
raw 16491 7

21990 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Convergence or Hessian problem 10

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 499
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 497
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 498
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 496

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Negative binomial (NB12)

Negative binomial (NB12): detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Negative binomial (NB12): false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 1, psi = 3

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.000 0.002
0.1 0.096 0.002
0.3 0.296 0.002
0.5 0.497 0.002

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 27
raw 16500 4

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

COM-Poisson

COM-Poisson: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.COM-Poisson: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 0.5 (nu = 2)

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 -0.002 0.002
0.1 0.097 0.002
0.3 0.298 0.002
0.5 0.499 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16499 27
raw 16499 4

21999 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Check failed 1

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
1000 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 499

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Generalized Poisson

Generalized Poisson: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Generalized Poisson: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 2

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.000 0.002
0.1 0.102 0.002
0.3 0.303 0.002
0.5 0.502 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 12
raw 16500 0

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Zero-truncated Poisson

Zero-truncated Poisson: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Zero-truncated Poisson: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: Poisson mean, truncated at zero

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 -0.001 0.002
0.1 0.102 0.002
0.3 0.302 0.002
0.5 0.500 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 19
raw 16500 3

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Zero-truncated NB1

Zero-truncated NB1: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Zero-truncated NB1: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 1, truncated at zero

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 -0.003 0.002
0.1 0.096 0.002
0.3 0.298 0.002
0.5 0.499 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16461 32
raw 16461 2

21950 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Convergence or Hessian problem 50

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 491
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 489
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 487
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 486
40 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 498
40 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 499

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Zero-truncated NB2

Zero-truncated NB2: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Zero-truncated NB2: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: size = 3, truncated at zero

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.000 0.003
0.1 0.096 0.003
0.3 0.296 0.003
0.5 0.496 0.003

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16475 33
raw 16475 12

21970 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Convergence or Hessian problem 30

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 495
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 494
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 487
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 495
40 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 499

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Zero-truncated COM-Poisson

Zero-truncated COM-Poisson: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Zero-truncated COM-Poisson: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 0.5 (nu = 2), truncated at zero

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 1000000 pairs and independently verified with 2000000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.000 0.001
0.1 0.100 0.001
0.3 0.300 0.001
0.5 0.501 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 24
raw 16500 1

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Zero-truncated generalized Poisson

Zero-truncated generalized Poisson: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Zero-truncated generalized Poisson: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 2, truncated at zero

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 1000000 pairs and independently verified with 2000000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.001 0.001
0.1 0.100 0.001
0.3 0.300 0.001
0.5 0.500 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 21
raw 16500 1

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Tweedie

Tweedie: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Tweedie: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: phi = 1, power = 1.5

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 1000000 pairs and independently verified with 2000000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 -0.001 0.001
0.1 0.098 0.001
0.3 0.297 0.001
0.5 0.497 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16473 21
raw 16473 5

21968 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Convergence or Hessian problem 32

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 496
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 494
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 497
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 486
40 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 499
40 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 499
40 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 498
60 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 499

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Gamma

Gamma: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Gamma: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: shape = 3

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.002 0.003
0.1 0.098 0.003
0.3 0.299 0.003
0.5 0.500 0.003

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 34
raw 16500 30

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Beta

Beta: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Beta: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, logit link, intercept 0.

Dispersion: precision = 8

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.0 0.001
0.1 0.1 0.001
0.3 0.3 0.001
0.5 0.5 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 14
raw 16500 0

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Lognormal

Lognormal: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Lognormal: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: response SD = 2

Population correlations

Analytic lognormal covariance and 40/80-node Gaussian quadrature.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.0 0
0.1 0.1 0
0.3 0.3 0
0.5 0.5 0

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 12
raw 16500 98

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Skew-normal

Skew-normal: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Skew-normal: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, identity link, intercept 0.

Dispersion: response SD = 1, shape = 1

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.002 0.001
0.1 0.100 0.001
0.3 0.301 0.001
0.5 0.501 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 12330 16
raw 12330 1

16436 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Convergence or Hessian problem 5564

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 424
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 411
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 406
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 407
40 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 394
40 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 406
40 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 399
40 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 392
60 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 393
60 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 385
60 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 390
60 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 394
80 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 381
80 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 382
80 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 388
80 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 381
100 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 365
100 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 373
100 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 379
100 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 387
150 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 372
150 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 376
150 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 380
150 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 391
200 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 380
200 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 371
200 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 364
200 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 353
300 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 353
300 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 361
300 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 346
300 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 363
400 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 356
400 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 351
400 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 366
400 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 363
500 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 355
500 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 357
500 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 326
500 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 372
1000 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 333
1000 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 348
1000 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 326
1000 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 336

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Bell

Bell: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Bell: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: Bell mean

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.0 0.002
0.1 0.1 0.002
0.3 0.3 0.002
0.5 0.5 0.002

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 26
raw 16500 6

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Student t

Student t: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Student t: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, identity link, intercept 0.

Dispersion: scale = 1, df = 5

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.002 0.001
0.1 0.102 0.001
0.3 0.302 0.001
0.5 0.501 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 15934 11
raw 15934 2

21255 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Check failed 114
Convergence or Hessian problem 631

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 389
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 393
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 387
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 356
40 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 458
40 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 463
40 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 465
40 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 459
60 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 481
60 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 484
60 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 486
60 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 478
80 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 497
80 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 491
80 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 490
80 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 493
100 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 496
100 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 498
100 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 495
100 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 496

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Ordinal

Ordinal: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Ordinal: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, probit link, intercept 0.

Dispersion: probit, thresholds -1, 0, 1, four categories

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 200000 pairs and independently verified with 500000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 -0.001 0.001
0.1 0.101 0.001
0.3 0.302 0.001
0.5 0.502 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 10
raw 16500 3

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Zero-inflated Poisson

Zero-inflated Poisson: detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Zero-inflated Poisson: false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: Poisson mean, extra-zero probability = 0.25

Zero component: Constant zero component, probability 0.25, fitted with ziformula = ~1.

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 1000000 pairs and independently verified with 2000000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.000 0.001
0.1 0.097 0.001
0.3 0.298 0.001
0.5 0.498 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16500 27
raw 16500 24

22000 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.

Hurdle negative binomial (NB2)

Hurdle negative binomial (NB2): detection of omitted partner correlation by number of dyads.Hurdle negative binomial (NB2): false alarms with no residual partner correlation by number of dyads.
Model settings and checks

Fitted model: outcome ~ actor_predictor + partner_predictor.

Mean: Actor effect 0.5, partner effect 0.3, log link, intercept 1.1.

Dispersion: size = 3, truncated at zero, extra-zero probability = 0.25

Zero component: Constant zero component, probability 0.25, fitted with ziformula = ~1.

Population correlations

Gaussian copula calibrated with 1000000 pairs and independently verified with 2000000 pairs.

Target residual correlation Verified correlation Monte Carlo SE
0.0 0.001 0.001
0.1 0.096 0.001
0.3 0.296 0.001
0.5 0.497 0.001

Opposite-direction flags with positive residual correlation

Method Datasets checked Opposite-direction flags
model-centred 16445 37
raw 16445 27

21934 of 22000 datasets produced reference simulations.

Exclusion reason Datasets
Convergence or Hessian problem 66

Conditions with fewer usable checks

Dyads Residual correlation Methods Generated Checked
20 0.0 model-centred, raw 500 489
20 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 485
20 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 479
20 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 487
40 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 499
40 0.3 model-centred, raw 500 498
40 0.5 model-centred, raw 500 498
60 0.1 model-centred, raw 500 499

Counts for every plotted point are saved in the summary table.